EghtesadOnline reports;

Trump's deadline for Hamas/a step towards a ceasefire or strengthening Israel's war machine?

For Trump, the Middle East region is neither particularly important nor a special priority. In the thinking system of Trump and his team, in the first place, current issues in the domestic and peripheral environment of America and then the geostrategic competition with China have priority and importance. Based on this, the end of the current wars and tensions in the region is very important as the starting point of the new American government. Benjamin Netanyahu also plans to take advantage of Trump's request to gain key points in the West Bank-Gaza annexation and to weaken Iran by reviving the maximum pressure campaign. If this premise is true, it is possible that Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will once again conquer America's "Middle East policy" by giving economic-security concessions to Trump.

News ID: ۲۰۰۰۴۶۹

11 December 2024

EghtesadOnline: "Israel Hum" newspaper affiliated with the Adelson family has reflected Lindsey Graham's quote from Trump regarding the prisoner exchange deal in Gaza. The president-elect of the United States has said that if Hamas does not release the American-Israeli prisoners, he will raise hell in the Middle East, which has never happened in the history of the United States! Apparently, Trump intends to put on a show of authoritarianism against the "inaction" of the Biden government. Jason Brodsky, the senior expert of "MEI" Institute, also pointed to Donald Trump's deadline for the Hamas movement until the inauguration ceremony of January 20, 2025 for the release of Israeli prisoners. This country was shown! For American neocons, the approach of the Biden administration was intolerable.While they were calling for massive aid to Israel's killing machine in Gaza, Biden's foreign policy team was seeking to reach a ceasefire through the channels of Cairo and Doha! Now it seems that the hard-line forces in America and Israel hope that with the presence of Trump, they will be able to reach a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, in which all the demands of Benjamin Netanyahu are taken into account. Based on this, in the continuation of this note, we will try to examine the relationship between this new process and the latest developments in the region, while examining the latest developments in the field of establishing a ceasefire and exchanging prisoners.

In the process of mediation between Israel and Hamas, the change of the center of mediation from Doha to Ankara seems to be another new development. In other words, with Trump entering the White House, countries close to the new American president's team have a better chance to play a role in the future of the region. Yoni Ben Menachem, one of the prominent Israeli experts, announced on his social network about the visit of the Hamas delegation led by Mohammad Darwish, Chairman of the Hamas Council, to Turkey and meeting with Hakan Fidan. Apparently, in this meeting, the Hamas representative and the Turkish Foreign Minister discussed the Gaza war, the prisoner exchange deal, and the ceasefire. It seems that in the new era, considering the relatively good relations between Türkiye and America, Ankara has a higher position compared to Qatar to advance the ceasefire case.The developments of these days in Syria show the increase of military, security and political coordination between Ankara and Tel Aviv during the geopolitical change in the region. Some analysts believe that due to the prevailing conditions in the region, there is a possibility that the Turks will remain one of the actors in the Gaza Strip and take the place of Qatar. According to the current trends in the West Asian region, it seems that Turkey has gained more geopolitical weight and has become the third side of American policies in the Middle East region in coordination with Israel and the countries of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council.

Since months ago, many analysts believed that Netanyahu intends to enter the Gaza war into an erosion process until the results of the American elections are known, so that in this way he can obtain more achievements in the field and also demand maximum points at the negotiating table.Trump's return to the White House means that Netanyahu can make demands such as removing Hamas from the political future of Gaza, changing the geopolitics of this strip, and finally being in the strategic axis of Philadelphia. Of course, the opinions of actors such as Hamas, the self-governing organizations, Egypt, Iran and Turkey are also very important in these negotiations, but the presence of a person like Trump in the White House has changed the game. If one day the demands of "Bibi" were introduced as unrealistic and propaganda, but today it seems that there are more chances of fulfilling these demands than before. Considering the improvement of the situation of Netanyahu and his allies in recent polls, it seems that reaching the point of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas and the release of Israeli prisoners by giving the least points can bring Netanyahu back to political life.We have to wait and see how far Netanyahu can achieve his wishes and will the Israeli ruling body accompany him or not?

Donald Trump has increased the pressure on Netanyahu to reach the ceasefire agreement, but so far he has not succeeded in this regard. It seems that gaining strategic achievements is very important for Netanyahu, because this process will not only lead to individual achievements for "Bibi", but it can lead to perpetuating the name of Netanyahu as the greatest personality of the Zionist regime. In other words, the current war has created an opportunity for the leader of the Likud Party to leave a lasting legacy for the Zionist regime by removing David Ben-Gurin.