Trump Bets Sunni Fears of Iran Can Win Israeli-Palestinian Peace

EghtesadOnline: Donald Trump is betting that Arab nations hold the key to securing peace between Israel and the Palestinians, a paradoxical premise founded on his belief that shared concern over Iran will bring longtime rivals to the bargaining table.

News ID: ۷۴۱۶۵۰

23 May 2017

Trump is using the opening leg of his first foreign trip as U.S. president to encourage the revival of Mideast peace talks. With appearances in Riyadh and Jerusalem, he’s observed repeatedly that the threat posed by Iran is pushing Arab Gulf states and Israel closer together. He believes that realignment could create conditions for long-abandoned peace talks to resume, Bloomberg reported.

It’s far from a fully-formed plan, and so far, Trump’s only made his case to friendly audiences: Sunni Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, all of whom fell over themselves praising the U.S. president. He’ll have a chance to try out the idea on Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Tuesday.

“I’ve heard it’s one of the toughest deals of all, but I have a feeling that we’re going to get there eventually, I hope,” Trump said after a meeting with his Israeli counterpart in Jerusalem on Monday.

He’ll face greater skepticism among European allies such as Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Emmanuel Macron. They don’t regard Iran in such apocalyptic terms and would like to restart robust trade with the Islamic Republic.

But after years in which Barack Obama essentially abandoned the Mideast peace process, Trump and his strongly pro-Israel administration have shown early signs of giving it another try.

Soon after taking office, Trump dispatched an envoy, Jason Greenblatt, to the region to meet with both Israelis and Palestinians. He has carefully avoided antagonizing the Palestinians, including by so far violating a campaign pledge to move the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. He’s also urged the Israelis to slow the expansion of Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories, surprising both settlement supporters and opponents.

‘Eternal Capital’

In statements after their meeting in Jerusalem on Monday, the Israeli prime minister emphasized the importance of the city to Jews, calling it their “eternal capital” and the “united capital of the Jewish state.” Trump pointedly said nothing about the city, which is also claimed by Palestinians and isn’t recognized internationally as Israel’s capital.

Yet a succession of U.S. presidents have attempted to negotiate peace between Israel and the Palestinians, whose modern-day conflict dates to the 1948 establishment of the Jewish state, and all have failed. Trump hasn’t even begun to wade into the details of the peace process, which would entail negotiating a series of issues of land, faith and race with roots centuries old.

It remains unclear how Trump sees a path to peace emerging from a common interest among Israelis and Arabs in confronting Iran.

Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator and vice president at the Wilson Center in Washington, said in a phone interview that he doesn’t foresee a possibility “in real-time” that Trump will be able to “cut the ultimate deal” -- a final agreement to end the conflict.

“I see no chance of that,” he said, largely because neither Netanyahu nor Abbas has shown any will to make concessions on issues such as borders, Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.

“However, whether by circumstance or by design there are new factors that are realigning the traditional equation of the impasse,” he said.

Warmer Relations

The potential for warmer relations between Gulf countries and Israel underscores the changing realities of the Middle East as Arab nations, concerned about Iran’s regional aspirations from Syria to Yemen, no longer see the Palestinian cause as their most pressing issue. Israel and Sunni countries have become de facto allies in recent years, a trend accelerated by their shared suspicion of Obama’s strategy to engage with Iran.

Trump’s negotiating team, led by Greenblatt, is trying to exploit its close relations with both the Saudis and the Israelis to help broker better ties between them, in exchange for progress in peace talks with the Palestinians. The idea isn’t entirely new. In 2002, the Arab League offered normalized relations with Israel in exchange for the Jewish State’s full withdrawal from territories occupied in the 1967 Middle East War. Then-Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon rejected the proposal.

But now, antagonism toward Iran is injecting urgency into regional discussions and there is widespread optimism that some sort of upgrade to relations can take place under Trump. One idea floated is for increased commercial ties and Israeli overflight rights through Saudi Arabia in exchange for Israeli concessions toward the Palestinians and a freeze of settlement construction, according to an Israeli government official.

On Monday, Air Force One flew directly from Riyadh to Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel, a first for the presidential aircraft. The two countries do not have diplomatic relations.

“President Trump’s visit strengthens the anti-Iranian camp in the region and presents an opportunity to advance regional security and economic cooperation as a foundation for regional peace,” Intelligence Minister Israel Katz said. He has met with Greenblatt recently to discuss his proposed Israel-to-Saudi Arabia train track, a bid to bolster commercial ties.

Shuttle Diplomacy

Greenblatt, an Orthodox Jew, has shuttled between Riyadh and Jerusalem as he seeks to find common understandings and jump-start the peace process. But many of the obstacles that have kept Israel and the Gulf countries from strengthening ties publicly may end up hampering Trump’s efforts this time around as well.

Netanyahu had a hard time getting his hawkish Cabinet to pass relatively simple gestures toward the Palestinians on Sunday night ahead of Trump’s visit, and bigger concessions could jeopardize his governing coalition. Arab countries are reluctant to take any steps in public toward normalization with Israel due to widespread resentment of the Jewish state among their public.

Yousef Munayyer, a resident scholar at the Middle East Institute and executive director of the U.S. Campaign for Palestinian Rights, said that he doubts Trump will succeed at making peace. But the president who campaigned on an pledge to put “America First” is showing a surprising interest in a region far from his homeland, he said.

“The big message from his trip to Israel is that Trump is going to be quite different than advertised,” he said. “I don’t think he’s going to be able to make a deal. That doesn’t mean the time he spends working on it may not shake things up.”