Iran: Summer Sees Highest Inflation on Record

EghtesadOnline: The consumer price index increased from 116.2 to 134.6 or around 16% during the summer (June 22-Sept. 22).

News ID: ۷۴۶۰۵۷

26 September 2018

According to data provided by the Statistical Center of Iran, the second quarter’s inflation has been the biggest quarterly inflation that the Iranian economy has seen thus far, the Persian daily Donya-e-Eqtesad reported.

The three months of summer saw month-on-month inflation rise by 4.5%, 5.2% and 5.4% respectively.

The goods and services Consumer Price Index in the 12-month period ending Sept. 22, which marks the end of the Iranian month of Shahrivar, increased by 11.3% compared with last year’s corresponding period, suggesting that the annual inflation has returned to double-digit territory after 27 months, according to Financial Tribune.

The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 134.6 in Shahrivar. The index registered a year-on-year increase of 25.7% compared with the similar month of last year.

SCI put urban and rural 12-month average inflation for Sharivar at 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. The overall CPI reached 134.4 for urban households and 135.5 for rural households, indicating an increase of 5.3% for urban areas and 5.8% for rural areas compared with the previous month.

The index registered a year-on-year increase of 25.7% for urban areas and 26.1% for rural areas compared with the similar month of last year.

> Forecast: Three Scenarios

To predict the underlying inflation trend, Donya-e-Eqtesad has outlined three hypothetical scenarios.

First Hypothesis: The average monthly inflation in the first half of the year was 2.6%. If the CPI continues to increase by 2.6% per month for the rest of the year, the year-on-year inflation would grow by at least 36% and the 12-month inflation will increase by more than 22% in the final month of the year.

Second Hypothesis: The rise in consumer price inflation in the first half of the year was chiefly fuelled by the CPI growth of Q2. If that is altered and the inflation rates of the second half of the year register growth rate similar to those of Q1 average (4.3%), CPI is expected to hit 146.4, the year-on-year inflation will increase more than 31% and the average annual inflation will go beyond 21%.

Finally, the third hypothesis posits that prices continue to rise just like they did during the summer. The average monthly inflation growth was 5% in Q2.

Imagine that CPI would grow by 5% as of the Iranian month Mehr (Sept. 21-Oct. 22). By the end of the year (March 20, 2019), CPI would reach 181, year-on-year inflation rate would increase to around 62% and the average 12-month inflation would stick around 30%.