Lingering Recession in Tehran Housing Market

EghtesadOnline: Home prices in Tehran continue to increase while the number of property deals decline, the latest report released by the Central Bank of Iran announced after reviewing housing data in the 10th month of the current Iranian year that ended on Jan. 20.

News ID: ۷۴۶۵۵۶

27 January 2019

According to a report published by CBI on its website on Jan. 26, 6,721 homes were sold in the capital during the month, signaling a year-on-year decrease of 64.6% compared with 19,004 deals of the corresponding month of last year.

Furthermore, the number of property deals declined by 1.4% compared to the preceding month that ended on Dec. 21.

The average price of each square meter of a residential unit in Tehran stood at about 98 million rials ($852), showing an annual surge of 90.8%, as average prices were registered at 51.34 million rials ($446) last year. Home prices in the capital grew by 2.5% compared to the about 95.5 million rials ($830) in the ninth month of the current year, according to Financial Tribune.

Tehran accounts for the largest share of home deals made in Iran.

Iran's housing market has been gripped by recession in recent months, as home prices are rising while the number of deals declines.

The trend of rising prices in tandem with the falling number of deals in Tehran emerged from the third month of the current year that ended on June 21, when prices grew by 45.8% and deals fell by 3.1% on an annual basis respectively. It has only exacerbated in the following months.

Property Deals in Detail

During the 10th month of the current year, newly-built residential units up to five years old grabbed the highest share of the total of 6,721 deals at 43.5%, down by 6% compared with the same month of last year.

That lost share was added to units with an age of six to 10 and 16 to 20 that registered a 16.4% and 15% share of total deals.

The share of deals involving homes over 20 years old also increased from 9.4% of the total deals last year to 11.2% this year, but they still had the smallest share of total deals in the month ending Jan. 20. Homes 11 to 15 years old posted a share of 13.8% of total deals.

The distribution of the dealt properties shows that among Tehran's 22 districts, District 5 once again grabbed the highest share of total deals at 12.4%. It was followed by districts 4 and 10 with a respective share of 9.5% and 7.7%.

All-in-all, 10 districts (five, four, 10, two, 15, eight, 14, one, seven and three) grabbed the lion's share of the deals at 71.3% with the remaining 12 districts holding a 28.7% share.

District 9 registered the highest average annual price growth at a whopping 109.1% during the 10th month of the current year. District 12 saw the lowest year-on-year average price hike at 37.6%.

Among Tehran's 22 districts, District 1 again registered the highest average home price of 231.1 million rials ($2,009) per square meter. District 18 offered the capital city's cheapest homes with an average per square meter price of 42 million rials ($365). These figures show a respective increase of 106.8% and 69.9% YOY.

CBI figures show that Tehran's residents once again favored smaller and cheaper homes, as their purchasing power has significantly dwindled in recent months due to massive price hikes.

Residential units with an average price range of 50 million rials ($434) to 60 million rials ($521) per square meter and 60 million rials to 70 million rials ($608) per square meter were the most popular in Tehran during the 10th month as they each grabbed a 10% share of total deals.

They were followed by units priced at 40 million rials ($347) to 50 million rials and 70 million rials to 80 million rials ($695) per square meter with a share of 8.3% each.

From the total number of deals, 58.7% belonged to homes cheaper than the average per square meter price of the city (98 million rials or $852).

Meanwhile, residential units with an area of 60 to 70 square meters registered the highest number of deals with a 14.4% share of total deals.

Units with an area of 50-60 square meters and 70-80 square meters came second and third with shares of 14.1% and 12.6% respectively.

All-in-all, units with an area of less than 80 square meters had a 55.8% share of total deals.

CBI data further show that Tehran's homes worth between 1.5 billion rials ($13,043) and 3 billion rials ($26,086) were the most popular with a 17.7% share of total deals.

Homes with price tags of between 3 billion rials and 4.5 billion rials ($39,130) and between 4.5 billion rials and 6 billion rials ($52,173) came next with a respective share of 17.1% and 10.8% of total deals. Collectively, residential units valued at less than 6 billion rials had a 48% share of total home deals in Tehran during the 10th month of the current year.

10-Month Perspective

During the first 10 months of the current Iranian year, the number of home deals finalized in Tehran totaled 104,641. This was 30.5% down compared with the 10 months of last year.

In the same period, the average price of each square meter of a home in the capital stood at about 77.62 million rials ($674), signaling a year-on-year surge of 66.9% compared with the 10 months of last year.

Tenancy in Urban Areas

The central regulator also announced changes in rents in the capital and across the country.

According to CBI, the price of rented residential units in Tehran and across all urban areas of Iran increased by 19.9% and 17.1% respectively during the 10th month of the current year compared with the similar period of last year.