Iran's EPI Increases 71%, IPI Grows 121% YOY

EghtesadOnline: The export price index (using the fiscal year ending March 2012 as the base year and in terms of rial) stood at 313.3 for the third quarter of the current Iranian year (Sept. 23-Dec. 21, 2018).

News ID: ۷۴۶۹۰۰

12 March 2019

According to the Statistical Center of Iran’s latest report, this registers a 30.3% increase compared with the preceding quarter (summer) and a 71.7% rise compared with the same quarter of the year before.

The average EPI during the four quarters to Dec. 21 witnessed a 37.4% growth year-on-year.

The third quarter saw EPI stand at 139.1 in dollar terms, registering a 10.4% increase compared with the preceding quarter and a rise of 26.3% compared with the same quarter of last year, Financial Tribune reported.

The average EPI in dollar terms during the four quarters leading to Dec. 21 witnessed a 15% growth YOY.

The statistical center has also released a new report on import price index.

IPI is an economic indicator measuring real output in various industries, with industrial production and capacity levels expressed as an index level relative to a base year, which SCI considers to be fiscal 2011-12, standing at 100.

In terms of rial, the index stood at 1071.9 for the third quarter of the current fiscal, registering a 28.8% increase compared with the preceding quarter and a 121.6% rise compared with the same quarter of last year.

The average IPI during the four quarters to Dec. 21 witnessed a 60.3% growth year-on-year.

The third quarter saw IPI stand at 276.5 in terms of dollar, registering a 7.4% increase compared with the previous quarter and a rise of 18.8%  compared with the same quarter of the last year.

The average IPI during the four quarters leading to Dec. 21 also witnessed a 6.6% increase YOY.

The SCI report comes after the Central Bank of Iran put the export price index at 723.5 for the tenth month of the current fiscal year (Dec. 22, 2018-Jan. 20).

The index saw a rise of 160.1% over the 10-month period and an increase of 140.1% over the 12-month period ending on Jan. 20 compared with the same period of last year.

EPI for Commodities

EPI is primarily influenced by two factors: foreign exchange rates and global commodity prices. The index is calculated for the price of one or a basket of commodities in international trading, using FOB export price.

The CBI report shows EPI for the “Petrochemicals” group was down 5.2% and that of “Land Vehicles and Transport Equipment” had the highest increase of 2.7% compared with the month before.

The highest year-on-year increase of EPI was registered for “Wood and Wood Products” with a 163.9% rise, followed by “Animal Skin, Leather and Leather Products” with 155.9%.

The slowest year-on-year rise in EPI was registered for “Fats, Animal and Vegetable Oils” with 84.9%.

The index for “Plant-Based Products” increased by 0.8% compared with the preceding month, mainly due to the rise in the export prices of pistachios (3%), dates (4%) and raisins (1.6%).

During the month under review, almonds’ EPI declined by 11.4%, tomatoes by 1.1% and saffron by 0.4% month-on-month. The group’s EPI was up 146.3% YOY.

The decline in EPI of liquefied propane by 7.4%, liquefied butane 7.2%, industrial oil 10.4%, paraffin wax 15.2%, cement 1.9%, engine oil 10.1% and copper and bitumen concentrates each 1.1% resulted in a 6.4% month-on-month decrease in EPI of “Mineral Products”. Yet, the EPI of “Mineral Products” group jumped by 144.9% YOY.

“Chemicals and Chemical Industry’s Related Products” saw a decline of 3.9% in their export price index, mainly due to the decline in the prices of ammonia by 12.5%, urea fertilizer 4%, monoethylene glycol (MEG) 6.7%, detergents 14.9%, methanol and styrene each 1.1%, molybdenum dioxide 6.9% and dodecylbenzene by 1.1%. The group’s EPI increased by 153.9% YOY.

EPI for “Plastics, Natural Rubber and Their Products” dropped by 4.8% compared with the preceding month. The decline in the prices of high-density polyethylene by 11.7%, low-density polyethylene 4.4%, motorcycle rubber seat cover 16.1% and plastic tube 1.1% is to blame for the fall in EPI of “Plastics, Natural Rubber and Their Products” compared with the month before. The group’s EPI increased 118.9% YOY.

The downturn in the export prices of hand-woven wool rug by 7% led to the drop in EPI of “Textiles” by 4.3%. The year-on-year EPI of this group grew by 89.1% YOY.

The export price index of “Common Metals and Their Products” decreased by 1.3% MOM, largely due to the decline in EPI of zinc ingot by 5.4%, hot rolled coils 1.1%, ferromolybdenum 8.9%, beam 3.7% and rebar by 16.1%. The group’s EPI climbed by 138.7% YOY.

The CBI does not report on IPI.

IRICA's Latest Export/Import Data

Latest statistics released by the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration show Iran’s overall non-oil foreign trade during the 10 months of the current fiscal year (March 21-Dec. 21) stood at $72.02 billion, indicating an 8.14% decrease YOY. In fact, the country recorded a trade surplus of $678 million in the 10-month period.

Overall exports, excluding crude oil, mazut, kerosene and suitcase trade, hit 94.87 million tons worth $36.35 billion during the 10 months ending Jan. 20, indicating a 2.21% increase in value YOY.

Imports amounted to 26 million tons worth $35.67 billion, down more than 17.38% in weight and 18.87% in value over last year’s similar period.

China reclaimed its place as Iran’s top non-oil export market from Iraq after three months and cemented its position as Iran’s main source of imports.

Iran’s exports to China during the 10 months reached $7.52 billion to account for 20.7% of the total value of Iran’s exports. Exports to China increased by 5.24% compared with the same period of last year.

After China, Iran’s top trading partners in terms of export during the period were Iraq, the UAE, Afghanistan and Turkey.

Iraq bought $7.51 billion worth of non-oil goods from Iran during the 10 months of the year, accounting for 20.67% of total value of Iran’s exports.

Exports to the UAE stood at $5.31 billion or 14.62% of Iran’s overall non-oil exports. Exports to Afghanistan and Turkey hovered around $2.53 billion and $2.02 billion, respectively. Ten-month exports to Afghanistan accounted for 6.97% of Iran’s total non-oil exports and those of Turkey constituted 5.57% of Iran’s overall non-oil exports.

Major exporters to Iran during the period were China with $8.9 billion (24.96% of Iran’s total import value), the UAE with $5.45 billion (15.29% of Iran’s total import value), Turkey with $2.03 billion (5.71% of Iran’s total import value), Germany with $2.01 billion (5.66% of Iran’s total import value) and India with $1.92 billion (about 5.4% of Iran’s total import value).

By “non-oil”, IRICA refers to all commodities except crude oil. Therefore, oil-driven products and byproducts as well as petrochemical products are still categorized as non-oil.

IRICA categorizes non-oil exports into three groups of petrochemicals, gas condensates and “other items”.

Petrochemicals accounted for 33.92% of Iran’s total exports, gas condensates 8.4% and exports of non-petroleum products, including carpets, agricultural as well as industrial and mining products that are classified within “others” group constituted 57.68% of Iran’s overall exports.

Gas condensates group included the export of gas condensates worth $3.05 billion (8.4% of total exports), liquefied natural gas worth $1.81 billion (4.99% of total exports), liquefied propane worth $1.48 billion (4.08% of total non-oil exports), methanol worth $1.22 billion (3.38% of total exports) and other light oils and products, except gasoline worth $1.22 billion (3.36% of total exports).

Iran's imports over the 10 months mainly included field corn ($1.61 billion accounting for more than 4.54% of total imports), auto parts except for tires ($1.26 billion accounting for more than 3.55% of total imports), rice ($1.1 billion accounting for more than 3.09% of total imports), soybeans ($975 million accounting for more than 2.73% of total imports) and soy meal ($493 million accounting for 1.38% of total imports).