SCI Surveys Consumer Inflation Across Iran

EghtesadOnline: The Statistical Center of Iran has released a new report, detailing consumer price changes in Iran's 31 provinces for the sixth month of the current Iranian year (Aug. 23-Sept. 22).

News ID: ۷۴۸۵۷۸

30 September 2019

The report shows that growth in overall Consumer Price Index was the highest (1.7%) for Qom Province during the month compared with the previous month.

This is while Kurdestan Province posted a month-on-month deflation of 1.6% last month.

The overall CPI calculated for the country (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 181.7 in the same month, indicating a 0.5% rise compared with the previous month, Financial Tribune reported.

Ilam Province’s goods and services consumer inflation registered a rise of 46.2% during the month year-on-year, the highest among all provinces.

The CPI increase YOY was the lowest for Fars Province with 29.8% compared with that of other Iranian provinces.

The overall goods and services CPI in Iran registered a YOY increase of 35% in the same month.

The average goods and services CPI in Iran for the 12-month period ending Sept. 22 increased by 42.7% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

Ilam registered the highest annual inflation of 51.9% while Qom posted the lowest of 36.3%.

Urban Households

The overall CPI calculated for urban areas stood at 180.8 during the sixth Iranian month, indicating a 0.6% rise compared with the previous month.

The growth in CPI measured for provincial urban households compared with the previous month was the highest (1.7%) for Qom while Kurdestan recorded a deflation of 1.6%.

The index registered an average YOY increase of 34.5% for urban areas. Goods and services CPI of Ilam’s urban areas registered a rise of 45.3% during the month, the highest among all provinces. This is while the CPI increase in urban areas was the lowest for Fars with 27.6% YOY.

The average CPI in urban areas for the 12-month period ending Sept. 22 increased by 41.9% compared with last year’s corresponding period. Households living in urban areas of Ilam saw the highest annual inflation (51.3%) while those of Fars witnessed the lowest (36%) among all Iranian provinces.

Rural Households

The overall CPI calculated for rural areas stood at 187.1 in the month under review, which indicates no change compared with the previous month.

The growth in CPI of rural households compared with the previous month was highest for Qom with 1.2%. This comes as rural households living in Zanjan saw a decline of 1.7% in the prices of goods and services compared with the month before.

The index registered an average YOY increase of 38.1% for rural areas in the same month. CPI of Ilam’s rural areas registered a YOY increase of 50.1% during the sixth month of the Iranian year, the highest among all provinces, whereas the CPI increase was the lowest for Sistan-Baluchestan with 29.3% when compared with other provincial rural areas.

The goods and services CPI of rural areas in the 12-month period ending Sept. 22 increased by 47.4% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

Kurdestan registered the highest 12-month inflation of rural areas (56.5%) while Alborz posted the lowest annual inflation (40.2%).

Rich-Poor Inflation Gap Narrows 0.6%

Another new report released by SCI shows the average annual inflation gap among income deciles stood at 2.3% in the sixth Iranian month, indicating a 0.6% decline compared with the previous month’s 2.9%.

The inflation gap of “food, beverages and tobacco” group among income deciles increased by 0.3 percentage point whereas that of “non-food and services” decreased by one percentage point month-on-month.

The average goods and services CPI in the 12-month period ending Sept. 22 increased by 42.6% for the first decile (those with the lowest income) while it grew by 44.9% for the 10th decile (those with the highest income).

The second, seventh and eighth deciles saw 12-month average inflation rates grow by 43.7% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

The annual inflation rate for the third decile increased by 43.6% in the same month, the fourth decile 43.5%, the fifth decile 43.4%, the sixth decile 43.1% and the ninth decile 43.9%.

The highest overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 184.9 for the 10th decile and the lowest calculated was 179.7 for the first decile.

The year-on-year inflation rates increased by 34.7% for the first decile during the month under review, 35.6% for second, 35.7% for third and fourth deciles, 35.8% for fifth, 35.5% for sixth and seventh, 35.3% for eighth, 34.7% for ninth and 33.8% for the 10th decile.

Income deciles are groupings that result from ranking either all households or all persons in the population in the ascending order according to income, and then dividing the population into 10 groups, each comprising approximately 10% of the estimated population.

Recently, 200,000 high-income households were removed from the list of cash subsidy receivers.

The deletion process was executed based on information gathered from various governmental bodies on individuals’ economic conditions, including whether they owned assets such as real estate or cars, held a job or a source of income or their submitted tax returns.

The Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare plans to identify households that fall within the top three high-income deciles to eliminate them from the list of cash subsidy receivers in cooperation with the Information and Communication Technologies Ministry and the Plan and Budget Organization.

"Given the economic pressures faced by low- and middle-income families, the measure will be carried out cautiously in order to reduce the margin of error in selecting households who don’t need the government’s cash subsidies," Cooperatives Minister Mohammad Shariatmadari was quoted as saying by ILNA recently.

Noting that each income decile roughly includes eight million people, the minister said households whose spending exceeds a specified threshold, which will be set according to the findings of the Central Bank of Iran, will be removed from the list of monthly cash subsidy receivers, ILNA reported.