PMI Data: Iranian Economy Remains in Recession

EghtesadOnline: Purchasing Managers Index in the 10th month of the current fiscal year (Dec. 22, 2019-Jan. 20) settled at 44.26, indicating that Iran’s economy remains in recession, according to the Statistics and Economic Analysis Center of the Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture.

News ID: ۷۴۹۶۹۰

16 February 2020

The center has measured PMI, known by its Farsi acronym Shamekh, for the country’s economy as a whole over the last three months, Financial Tribune reported.

The overall PMI for the economy improved from 42.27 in the month ending Nov. 21, 2019, to 48.22 in the month ending Dec. 21, 2019, but slid to 44.26 in the month leading to Jan. 20.

The headline PMI is a number from 0 to 100, such that over 50 represents an expansion when compared with the previous month. A PMI reading under 50 indicates contraction and a reading of 50 implies no change.

PMI is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends, aiming to provide information about business conditions to company decision-makers, analysts and purchasing managers.

According to the report, the business output sub-index increased from 41.49 in the eighth fiscal month (Oct. 23-Nov. 21, 2019) to 49.61 in the ninth fiscal month (Nov. 22-Dec. 21, 2019) but dropped to 42.65 in the 10th fiscal month (Dec. 22, 2019-Jan 20).

The new orders sub-index improved from 40.50 in the eighth month to 45.70 in the ninth month, but fell to 40.41 in the 10th month.

The supplier deliveries sub-index, which measures how fast deliveries are made, increased from 46.45 in the eighth month to 54.76 in the ninth month but dropped to 50.67 in the 10th month.

The raw materials inventory sub-index increased from 38.05 in the month ending Nov. 21 to 41.37 in the month ending Dec. 21 to 41.81 in the month ending Jan. 20.

The PMI reading of employment sub-index improved from 44.88 in the eighth month to 48.79 in the ninth month, but dropped to 48.52 in the 10th month.

To calculate PMI, seven secondary criteria were also surveyed by the center, namely raw materials purchase prices, warehouse inventory, exports, product price, fuel consumption, sales and production expectations.

The raw materials purchase prices sub-index increased from 74.8 in the month ending Nov. 21 to 78.41 in the month ending Dec. 21, but fell to 74.79 in the month ending Jan. 20.

The warehouse inventory sub-index decreased from 48.13 in the month ending Nov. 21 to 48.05 in the month ending Dec. 21 to 45.88 in the month ending Jan. 20.

The exports sub-index increased from 43.42 in the eighth month to 45.09 in the month ending Dec. 21, but sank to 40.97 in the 10th month.

The prices of manufactured products or services sub-index climbed from 53.55 in the eighth month to 55.74 in the ninth month, but slid to 54.66 in the 10th month.

The fuel consumption sub-index rose from 59.74 in the month ending Nov. 21 to 61.41 in the month ending Dec.21, but decreased to 60.59 in the month ending Jan. 20.

The sales sub-index improved from 39.33 in the eighth month to 46.77 in the ninth month, but dipped to 42.55 in the 10th month.

Business output sub-index rose consecutively from 47.61 in the month ending Nov. 21, 2019, to 49.98 in the month ending Dec. 21, 2019, to 58.35 in the month ending Jan. 20.