10% Decline in Home Prices Over Three Weeks

EghtesadOnline: Home prices have declined by 10% over the past three weeks, as rising supply has put a downward pressure on prices, Mostafa Qoli-Khosravi, the head of Tehran Realtors Association, said recently.

News ID: ۷۵۱۶۰۹

01 December 2020

“The Iranian month ending Nov. 20 saw 5,072 home deals concluded in Tehran, indicating a 48% decrease compared with the previous month but a 12% growth compared with the same month of last year. The number of rental agreements in Tehran registered at the state-run Tenement Management Information System [operated by the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development] stood at 16,583, registering a 10% decline month-on-month but a 66% increase year-on-year,” he was quoted as saying by IRNA.

Qoli-Khosravi said over 44,339 sale contracts were finalized across the country during the month under review, indicating a 31% decrease month-on-month but a 67% growth year-on-year.

“A total of 133,096 lease agreements were signed across the country, during the month under review, posting a 9% decline month-on-month but a 273% rise year-on-year,” he said.

“The decline in the number of deals is indicative of real state buyers’ expectation of future house-price depreciation rates and sellers’ resistance to decreases.”

The official noted that the country’s economic prospects are positive and the foreign currency exchange rate is declining, which has led to a decline in asking home prices.

“Residential properties with inflated prices don’t have any buyers,” he said.

CBI Report

Latest data published by the Central Bank of Iran show a total of 4,466 homes were sold in the capital during the eighth month of the current fiscal year (Oct. 22-Nov. 20), registering a 48.4% decline compared with the preceding month, but a 9.9% growth compared with the same month of last year.

The average price of each square meter of a residential property in Tehran stood at 271.93 million rials ($1,080) during the month under review, showing a surge of 118.2% over last year’s same month, as average prices were registered at 124.63 million rials ($500) then.

Home prices in the capital city increased by 1.8% compared to 267.2 million rials ($1,064) in the seventh month of the current year.

The CBI data also show that during the month ending Nov. 20, newly-built residential properties up to five years old constituted the highest proportion of deals at 38.9% (or 1,736 deals), down by 3.1 percentage points compared with the same month of last year.

That lost share was added to homes above 15 years. Homes with a lifespan of 16 to 20 years and above 20 years accounted for 17.7% and 13.8% of total deals compared with the same month of last year’s 16.4% and 9.2%, respectively.

The share of deals involving homes that were six to 10 years and 11 to 15 years old decreased from 18.9 and 13.5% of the total deals of last year’s same month to 17.5% and 12.1% this year.

The distribution of dealt properties shows that among Tehran’s 22 districts, District 5 grabbed the highest share of total deals at 12.1%. It was followed by districts 10 and four with a share of 8.6% and 8.4%, respectively.

All-in-all, 10 districts (five, 10, four, two, 14, seven, eight, 15, 11 and one) grabbed the lion's share of the deals at 70.4% with the remaining 12 districts holding a 29.6% share.

Among Tehran's 22 districts, District 1 registered the highest average home price of 550.1 million rials ($2,191) per square meter. District 18 offered the capital city's cheapest homes with an average per-square meter price of 120.4 million rials (about $480). The aforesaid numbers show a respective increase of 134.3% and 99% YOY.

Residential units with an average price range of 140 million rials ($557) to 160 million rials ($637) per square meter were the most popular in Tehran during the Iranian month under review, as they grabbed an 8.6% share of all deals. They were followed by units priced at 160 million rials ($637) to 180 million rials ($717) per square meter with a share of 7.3% and homes priced at 120 million rials ($478) to 140 million rials ($557) per square meter with a share of 6.9%.

From the total number of deals, 62.1% belonged to homes cheaper than the average per-square meter price of the city (i.e., 271.93 million rials or $1,083).

Residential units with a floor area of 60-70 square meters registered the highest number of sales with a 15.2% share of total deals.

Units with an area of 50-60 square meters and 70-80 square meters came second and third with shares of 15.1% and 12.1%, respectively. All-in-all, residential properties with an area of under 80 square meters had a 57.2% share of total deals.

CBI data further show that Tehran’s homes worth between 6 billion rials ($23,904) and 8.5 billion rials ($33,864) were the most popular with a 13.5% share of total deals. These were followed by homes with a price tag of between 8.5 billion rials ($33,864) and 11 billion rials ($43,824) and those priced at between 11 billion rials ($43,824) and 13.5 billion rials ($53,784) with a share of 10.6% and 9.5% of total deals.

Collectively, homes valued under 18.5 billion rials ($73,705) had a 55% share of total home deals in Tehran during the eighth month of the current year.

During the first eight months of the current Iranian year that started on March 20, the number of home deals finalized in Tehran totaled 68,043, which shows a 70.7% rise year-on-year.

In the same period, the average price of each square meter of a home in the capital stood at 216.79 million rials ($863), signaling a YOY surge of 70.9% compared with the eight months of last year.

The central regulator also reports changes to tenancy prices in the capital city and across the urban areas.

According to CBI, the price of rented residential units in Tehran and across urban areas increased by 28.7% and 31.9% respectively during the eighth month of the current year compared with the similar month of last year.