Probable impact of US elections’ result on Iran relations

EghtesadOnline: Just one day before US presidential elections, rivalry is high between two main candidates in the most sensitive phase; many are closely monitoring both presidential nominees’ campaigns to be able to forecast the future of the US relations with Iran in the coming days.

News ID: ۷۷۱۰۷۶

07 November 2016

Latest opinion polls have revealed narrowing gap between the votes in favor of the two candidates while the same polls showed a ten percent gap in favor of the Democrat Party nominee Hilary Clinton, according ro IRNA.

Still, the main question is how the victory of each of the US presidential candidates could affect relations between Tehran and Washington.

For a long period now, experts and commentators have been contemplating on the impacts of the results of the 2016 US presidential elections on America’s ties with Iran. The American political circles too are highly sensitive towards the issue as the Iran issue was kept at the heart of presidential candidates during their numerous debates.

When comes to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), both nominees have been moving forward in line with the official views of their respective parties. Commentators believe that, if elected, Clinton will support the nuclear deal but take tougher actions against Iran. On the other hand, the Republic nominee Donald Trump, based on primary views, will be aggressive towards Iran like always before when called for the JCPOA cancellation and proposed sale of defective of missiles to Iran.

Focusing on the point, an Iranian expert of US issues Nasser Hadian earlier said that the US relations with Iran’s rival countries like Saudi Arabia and the Zionist regime will improve but suffer decline if Clinton wins the elections.

However, he added, if he becomes the US president, Trump will follow more independent policies because the element of unpredictability which is his dominant mood could make his decisions and actions for and against Iran.

The analyst also said that though Clinton stands a much higher chance as the US next president, Trump the President will not harm Iran as he is a businessman who lacks international credibility.

Being an outsider in the world of politics and the science of international relations, Trump has to be aware that his clumsy and out of the context remarks, his repeated insults to women, to migrants, to Muslims, to Hispanics and to colored people will make it tough for him to move on with Washington’s policies. Maybe, this factor played a role in persuading many of Republican leading figures as well as numerous senior officials in such countries as Germany, Italy and France to come out and voice their support for Hillary Clinton.

The most important thing to note here is the difference between rhetoric and action. Many analysts hold that many restrictions Washington face both in national and international scales in advancing its policies will make both candidates moderate and even change their views if elected as the president.

The power structure in America, restricting international norms and apparatus, national and international standards and economic requirements as well as bureaucratic regulations are among factors directly affecting decision making procedures in the US. All these elements make it quite difficult to forecast the next US president’s behavior towards Iran.