PPI Hits Five-Year High

EghtesadOnline: The average Producer Price Index in the 12 months ending July 22, which marks the end of the Iranian month of Tir, increased by 13.1% compared with last year’s corresponding period, according to the latest report by the Central Bank of Iran.

News ID: ۷۸۳۵۳۵

04 August 2018

CBI put the preceding month’s PPI inflation at 12%. This is a 1.1 percentage point increase over last month, a record high growth since June 22-July 22, 2013.

The PPI (using Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year for the first time) stood at 135.6 in Tir, indicating a 10.3% rise compared with the previous month.

A look at CBI’s statistics shows the last time PPI grew this much month-on-month was in Sept. 22-Oct. 21, 2012 when it increased 15%, according to Financial Tribune.

A year-on-year increase of 27.8% was registered in the index compared with the similar month of last year. Such an increase has not been registered since Dec. 22, 2013-Jan. 20, 2014.

> Group-Based Analysis

Of the eight main groups reviewed by CBI, “Industry” registered the highest growth in monthly PPI with 13.1% and the year-on-year increase of 37.9% in Tir.

“Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing” posted a monthly rise of 10.5% and a YOY increase of 21.2%

“Transportation” indicated the monthly PPI rise of 9.9% and YOY increase of 23.3%.

The monthly PPI increase for “Hotel and Restaurant” was 3.1% and its YOY growth was at 13.9%.

The monthly PPI of “Education” increased by 0.7%, as its YOY index grew 14.1%.

“Health and Social Work” recorded the monthly rise of 2.6% and YOY increase of 13.5%.

The “Other Public, Social, and Individual Services” group registered a monthly rise of 1.4% and a YOY rise of 16.8%.

The lowest monthly and YOY growth was registered in the PPI of “Information and Communications” group with 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.

The monthly PPI for “Services” grew 6% and its YOY index increased 17.8%.

The importance of PPI lies in its predictive content for the future pattern of Consumer Price Index. Changes in PPI are usually reflected in CPI within a short period of time.

The central bank’s latest data on the CPI show the goods and services CPI for urban areas in the 12 months to July 22 increased 10.2% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 126.8 in Tir, indicating a 3.4% increase compared with the previous month. The index registered a year-on-year increase of 18% compared with the similar month of last year.

Currently, two government bodies, namely the Statistical Center of Iran–affiliated to the Plan and Budget Organization–and the Central Bank of Iran, are in charge of releasing statistical data, including those on Consumer Price Index trends.

According to the latest report by SCI, the average goods and services CPI of the country in the 12-month period ending July 22 increased by 8.7% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

SCI had put the inflation rate for the preceding month of Khordad, which ended on June 21 at 8.2%. The center also put urban and rural 12-month inflation for Tir at 8.8% and 8.2% respectively.

> Provinces With Lowest, Highest Inflations

The highest average inflation rate was registered for Kermanshah Province (11.6%) and the lowest was registered for Kohgilouyeh-Boyerahmad Province (6.3%).

The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 121.4 in Tir, indicating a 4.4% rise compared with the previous month.

The index reached 121.5 for urban households and 120.9 for rural households, indicating an increase of 4.6% for urban areas and 3.2% for rural areas compared with the previous month.

The highest growth in CPI was registered for Tehran Province (7.6%) and the lowest growth was recorded for Khorasan Razavi (1.6%).

The index registered a year-on-year average increase of 13.8% compared with the similar month of last year. Urban areas registered a year-on-year increase of 14% and rural areas showed the YOY rise of 12.7% of consumer inflation compared with the similar month of last year.

The provinces of Tehran and Ardabil registered the highest and the lowest year-on-year inflation increase with 17.4% and 9.5%, respectively.