Iran's PPI Inflation at 53.9% YOY (Dec 2018)

EghtesadOnline: An increase of 53.9% was registered in the Producer Price Index in the Iranian month of Azar (Nov. 22-Dec. 21) compared with the similar month of last year, the Central Bank of Iran's latest report showed.

News ID: ۷۸۴۴۴۷

01 January 2019

PPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year for the first time) stood at 173.9 in Azar, indicating a 4.5% decrease compared with the previous month.

The average PPI in the 12 months ending Dec. 21 grew by 30.6% compared with last year’s corresponding period, while the preceding month’s annual PPI inflation was 26.9%.

Eight Main Groups

Out of the eight main groups under CBI review for the month, the “industry” as well as “transportation and warehousing” registered negative growth in their month-on-month PPI with 9.5% and 0.2%, respectively. The two group’s year-on-year increase in PPI was at 66.6% and 53.8% in Azar, according to Financial Tribune.

The “industry” group registered the highest year-on-year PPI growth among all groups.

The “agriculture, forestry and fishing” group posted a month-on-month rise of 2.6% and a YOY increase of 55.4%.

The “hotel and restaurant” group’s month-on-month PPI increase was at 3.5%, as its YOY growth stood at 35.5%. This group posted the highest month-on-month PPI growth.

The “education” group recorded a rise of 0.5% in Azar compared to the prior month and an 18.3% increase compared with last year's corresponding month.

The “health and social work” group recorded a month-on-month rise of 1.4% and a YOY increase of 18.6%.

The group categorized as “other public, social and individual services” registered a rise of 1.8% in Azar compared to the previous month and a YOY rise of 22.9%.

As for “information and communications”, PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year. The group posted the slowest year-on-year PPI growth among all groups.

The PPI of the exclusive group of “services” grew by 4% month-on-month and 35.4% YOY.

The Central Bank of Iran will no longer publish, until further notice, figures on the goods and services Consumer Price Index due to large discrepancies between its reports and those of SCI

PPI Versus CPI Inflation

The importance of PPI lies in its predictive content for the future pattern of Consumer Price Index. Changes in PPI are usually reflected in CPI within a short period of time.

Until last month, the details of consumer price index were published regularly by both the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank of Iran, which in most cases were contradictory.

The two bodies release monthly reports on inflation in Iran. The published figures, however, often differ due to discrepancies in base years, among others.

On Monday, Mahmoud Cheloyan, a senior statistician with CBI, announced that the central regulator will not publish, until further notice, figures on the goods and services Consumer Price Index due to large discrepancies between its reports and those of SCI.

According to the Statistical Center of Iran, CPI registered a YOY increase of 37.4% in Azar compared with the similar month of last year.

The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 151.7 in the same month, indicating a 2.6% rise compared with the previous month.

The average CPI Index in the 12-month period ending Dec. 21 increased by 18% YOY.

SCI had put the inflation rate for the preceding month of Aban, which ended on Nov. 21 at 15.6%. It put urban and rural 12-month inflation for Azar at 18%.

The overall CPI reached 151 for urban households and 155.3 for rural households, indicating an increase of 2.5% for urban areas and 3% for rural areas compared with the previous month.

The index registered a year-on-year increase of 36.9% for urban areas and 39.9% for rural areas compared with the similar month of last year.

According to the Central Bank of Iran’s latest report, the consumer inflation for urban areas in the month ending Nov. 21 increased by 39.9% compared with the similar month of last year.

The overall CPI stood at 153.6 in Aban, indicating a 3.5% increase compared with the previous month.

This is while average CPI in the 12 months ending Nov. 21 increased by 18.4% compared with last year’s corresponding period.

The highest inflation among 12 goods and services groups in the Iranian month Azar was recorded for the “food and beverages” group with a 5.1% rise compared with the month before.

Meanwhile, “tobacco” group saw the month-on-month deflation of 3.3% in its prices among these groups.

The “tobacco” group registered the highest and “health and treatment” posted the lowest year-on-year CPI increase among the 12 groups of goods and services with 147.1% and 21.5%, respectively.

The inflation rate of “tobacco” group was the highest in the 12-month ending Dec. 21 with 71.6% and that of “health and treatment” group had the slowest annual inflation rate of 12.8%.