Expert Sees No Short-Term Solution to Iran-US Standoff

EghtesadOnline: Iran and the US have hit a dead end and the probability of finding a short-term solution to resolve the situation is low, a university professor maintains.

News ID: ۷۸۵۳۰۷

26 January 2020

“Iran and the US continue to be locked in a stalemate over the 2015 nuclear deal, as both countries refuse to make concessions to clear the way for negotiations, but are also not interested in escalating hostilities,” Ardeshir Sanaei also told ISNA.

“I do not see a way out of this deadlock in the near future. I believe the situation will remain the same until the nuclear row is resolved and that hinges on negotiations between Iran and the US”, Financial Tribune quoted him as saying.

The US withdrew from the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May 2018, and has since resorted to every possible means to block Iran’s oil exports, along with other wide-ranging sanctions, which have scuttled the country’s economic growth.

The European powers’ failure to shore up trade with Iran prompted Tehran to scale back its commitments under the nuclear accord, ratcheting up tensions in the region and beyond.

On whether tensions between Tehran and Washington will continue to increase, Sanaei said, “I don’t see that happening, as neither party is eager to intensify tensions.”

Pointing out the optimistic viewpoint of many who believe US President Donald Trump will not be reelected, Sanaei said, “The pessimistic alternative is that he will be in office until 2024. We need to estimate how long Iran can hold its ground.”

The expert on international relations added that given Iran’s declining oil revenue and a lack of efficient international banking transactions, along with the rising possibility of the return of global sanctions, Tehran needs to make a careful assessment of the social, political and economic circumstances inside Iran, in the region and in the world to work out the right policies.

Iran has gradually reducing commitments to JCPOA in reversible phases. Following Tehran's fifth and final step, which involved abandoning all limitations on enriching uranium, the European signatories to the deal launched the deal's dispute resolution mechanism.

The mechanism can eventually lead to a so-called "snapback" of global sanctions against Iran, effectively putting an end to Iran's trade with its key remaining trade partners, namely China, Russia and Turkey.

On contradictory remarks by Iranian officials over negotiations with the US, the university professor said, “There are some people within the establishment who favor negotiated solutions, but the system is overall opposed to it.”

Sanaei noted that this disagreement should not be publicized and the authorities concerned need to come to an agreement so as to project unanimity in Tehran's foreign policy.