Determinants of Inflation in Iran and Policies to Curb It

Iran’s CPI inflation has fluctuated sharply over the past two decades around its annual average of 20% (Figure 1.a.), and has been much higher than that of Iran’s emerging market and regional peers (Figure 1.b.). With the Covid-19 pandemic hitting Iran’s economy on top of preexisting US trade and financial sanctions and exacerbating the supply constraints, its annual CPI inflation reached nearly 50% at the end of FY 2020-21 (Iranian year that ended on March 20, 2021) and averaged 40% during FY 2021-22 (Iranian year that ended on March 20, 2022). 

Coupled with low economic growth and high unemployment, rising inflation has fueled widespread protests in the country amid a significant erosion in purchasing power. The new government that took office in August 2021 identified tackling inflation as a key economic priority, reads a working paper published by the International Monetary Fund.